03/25/2026
Press Conference - Hamburg Real Estate Market 2026
Between structural strain and new market momentum: At the start of 2026, the Hamburg real estate market finds itself in a field of tension between structural challenges and the first signs of stabilisation. While the residential rental market continues to suffer from a pronounced supply shortage and rising rents, the owner-occupied housing segment is showing noticeable signs of recovery, though it remains vulnerable to economic uncertainties. At the same time, the office market is undergoing a phase of realignment: high-quality space in central locations continues to benefit from the ongoing flight to quality, while older stock faces mounting pressure. In this environment, flexible office concepts are regaining relevance. Parallel to this, mixed-use developments, adaptive re-use and the transformation of existing buildings are gaining traction — as demonstrated by CELLS’ redevelopment projects “Am Holstenwall” and “Thalia-Haus”. These trends are shaping the city’s development strategy and supporting demand-driven utilisation concepts. These are the key findings from the 2026 market outlook press conference featuring representatives from CELLS, Colliers, Dahler, HIH Invest and neworld.
Significant Rental Growth in the Residential Market
The Hamburg residential market remains characterised by a pronounced structural supply-demand imbalance. As household numbers continue to increase and new construction declines sharply, the supply deficit continues to widen — a development that is already reflected in rental prices. Sascha Hanekopf, Regional Manager Hamburg at Colliers Germany, notes:
“Both existing stock and new-build units saw significant rent increases in 2025, and no medium-term easing is in sight. While rents in existing stock rose by 6.6 per cent, new-build asking rents increased even more dynamically by 7.6 per cent to an average of €21.95 per square metre — levels comparable to commercial rents.” With completions continuing to fall, Colliers expects existing‑stock rents to rise by roughly 15.8 per cent by 2029. “In the new-build segment, we anticipate annual rent growth of around 3.9 to 4.0 per cent,” Hanekopf adds.
Owner-Occupied Housing:
Between Recovery and Uncertainty
The Hamburg owner-occupied housing market saw a noticeable rebound in 2025, with transaction numbers increasing once again. Market-wide, sales of condominiums rose by 13.4 per cent, while house sales increased by 5.6 per cent. According to Björn Dahler, Managing Director of the Dahler & Company Group: “In the premium segment, growth was even more pronounced, with condominium transactions increasing by 15.1 per cent and single- and two-family homes by 13.5 per cent — a clear sign that demand has returned to 2021 levels.”
Prices also showed a positive trend: average condominium prices increased by 0.9 per cent year-on-year to €6,348 per square metre. Prices for single- and two-family homes rose more dynamically, increasing by 1.3 per cent to an average of €565,000. “At the same time, this recovery remains fragile. Higher supply is meeting more cautious buyers who face stricter financing conditions and show greater price sensitivity. As a result, the market currently sits between renewed activity and emerging uncertainty — with stabilised transaction levels but limited room for further price appreciation,” Dahler summarises.
On the transaction side, Hanekopf notes positively that the share of residential transactions in Germany returned in 2025 to levels last seen in 2021. Demand, capital inflows and renewed investor interest point to continued solid market activity in 2026.
Prime Locations in Demand, Secondary Stock Under Pressure:
Office Market in Transition
Despite economic headwinds, the Hamburg office market proved resilient in 2025 but is clearly undergoing structural readjustment. “The Hamburg office market performed solidly under challenging conditions in 2025, but we can clearly observe a shift towards quality,” says Hanekopf. Take-up reached approximately 396,400 square metre — below peak years but in line with historical averages. At the same time, vacancy rose to 5.5 per cent, while prime rents increased to €38.00 per square metre. Average office rents currently stand at €22.30 per square metre. Demand stems from a broad mix of sectors, particularly manufacturing, consulting and the public sector, which together account for around 40 per cent of total take-up.
From an investor perspective, Felix Meyen, Managing Director of HIH Invest, confirms: “We see that the market continues to function very well in central locations. Despite more cautious overall demand, we are still letting high-quality space quickly and at attractive terms — for example at our fully-let Hanse-Forum at Axel-Springer-Platz.” The property, acquired in 2018, offers a diverse tenant mix, complemented by retail space and a fitness studio.
While many occupiers are reassessing space requirements due to economic uncertainty, high-quality, centrally located buildings remain strongly sought after. “Capital is concentrating on core assets in strong locations, while peripheral and lower-quality stock is increasingly coming under pressure. At the same time, Hamburg continues to show comparatively stable vacancy levels compared with other German top markets and remains perceived as a resilient investment location,” Meyen adds.
For 2026, Colliers expects slight market improvement, accompanied by further pressure on outdated stock.
“Am Holstenwall” and “Thalia-Haus”:
New Concepts for Hamburg’s City Centre
Across Hamburg, CELLS is focusing on the conversion and repositioning of obsolete or vacant properties. The former Haspa building on Holstenwall, vacant for around twelve years, has been expanded from 8,000 to roughly 11,800 square metre and comprehensively reorganised. With extensive terrace and amenity space, the project is nearing completion (Q2 2026) and is already 83 per cent pre-let to covenant‑strong tenants. “We deliberately intervene in the existing building fabric, expanding and upgrading where economically and functionally appropriate, instead of demolishing and rebuilding,” explains Norman Schaaf, CDO of CELLS.
The transformation of the “Thalia-Haus” is still at an early stage. The former department store and car park will be restructured into a mixed-use quarter including a 5-star hotel with around 150 rooms (secured via a head of terms agreement), approx. 6,000 square metre of office space and residential units in the upper floors. Rooftop and F&B uses will further enhance the location. An Icelandic family office has been secured as investor; a preliminary building application has been submitted, and planning consent is expected by year-end. “In central urban locations, the key challenge is to reposition existing buildings and adapt them to support diversified, long-term viable uses,” Schaaf says.
Flex Office as a Complement and Selective Growth Driver
Flexible office space continues to gain importance as a component of modern workplace strategies. Across Germany, flex-office supply has nearly doubled since the pandemic and now exceeds one million square metre. Demand in Hamburg remains stable, particularly in central, well-connected locations — reinforcing the flight to quality trend.
Since early 2026, Scaling Spaces has opened its first Hamburg location in the Sprinkenhof (Burchardstrasse 14). “Flex-office solutions are especially attractive for SMEs and project teams of larger companies that require scalable space or want to test new locations. Due to the volatile economic environment, many businesses can only plan short-term. Flex office meets this need by offering short lease terms and easily adjustable space configurations,” says Alexander Lackner, CEO of neworld, the investors behind Scaling Spaces. “In Hamburg, we see considerable further potential for flexible office space and can imagine additional locations in the city.”